For my research, I focused on Allan Lichtman’s model for predicting US presidential elections. Lichtman, a history professor at American University, has correctly predicted every election since his model debuted in 1984. The model can even be used to correctly forecast every election since 1860. Lichtman’s model, known as “The Keys to the White House,” consists of 13 indicators, called keys. Each key is a true-false statement about the political conditions leading up to the election. For instance, key #3 is “Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.” If that statement is true, the key favors the incumbent party. If not, it favors the challenging party. If the challenging party has six or more keys in its favor, they are projected to win the election. If not, the incumbent party is expected to remain in power.
With Lichtman’s work in mind, I studied a sample of 76 quarterbacks, including every single first round QB selected since the 1999 draft. After finding seven strong data trends that could be used as quarterback keys, I created the “QB Key Model.” The system yields a binary grade, either pass or fail. In order to receive a passing grade, the prospect must receive 5/7 keys. A quarterback that receives a passing grade is projected to be a worthwhile first round pick (as defined earlier), while a player that receives a failing grade is projected not to reach that threshold. The keys are as follows:
- Winning: The prospect’s winning percentage was at least 66.7% in their final college season.
- Competition: The prospect played at a Power 5 conference, excluding the Big 12.
- Experience**: The prospect is a starter for at least two college seasons.
- First Round Talent: The prospect is projected to be a first round pick by a major newsoutlet (such as ESPN) in the week before the draft.
- Sitting in the NFL: The prospect sits for at least one year in the NFL.
- MLB: The prospect has been either drafted or offered a contract by a professionalbaseball team.
- Pass Attempt to Interception Ratio: The prospect’s PA/int ratio is greater than 39 PAs / 1int.** The experience key is mandatory, as no QB since 1999 that started less than two years in college was able to meet the successful career benchmark.
Out of the 76 quarterbacks that have received grades, 17 QBs are not factored into the system because they haven’t been in the league for a minimum of five seasons yet. Out of the remaining 59 quarterbacks, the model has correctly predicted pass or fail for 42, yielding an overall success rate of 71%. The model is a much stronger predictor of failure, as its accuracy when giving a failing grade is 86% (32/37), while its accuracy when giving a passing grade is 45% (10/22).
The divergence in accuracy when giving a pass vs a fail shows how the model should be used: Because the model is very good at predicting failure, it should be used as a tool for teams to filter out busts with near certainty. Teams could then use subjective factors (film, leadership, injury proneness, etc.) to further evaluate the quarterbacks that received passing grades, knowing that there would be about a
These results show that the QB Key Model can serve as a powerful addition to the current way college quarterbacks are evaluated.
2021 Draft Outlook
With the 2021 NFL draft just weeks away, the QB Key Model is more relevant than ever. Here is how the model ranks the top 5 QBs in this year’s class.
1. Trevor Lawrence: Passing Grade
As a quarterback who started for three years in the ACC and went 9-1 in his final season, Trevor Lawrence receives the winning, competition, and experience key. Nearly guaranteed to be drafted first overall, he also receives the first round talent key. With a PA / int ratio of 66.8, the final key Lawrence receives is key #7. This brings his total to five keys, yielding a passing grade. Lawrence is widely considered to be the best prospect in this year’s draft. The model’s evaluation of the Clemson QB is in line with this consensus.
2. Justin Fields: Passing Grade (if he sits for a year in the NFL)
Fields went 7-1 in his final season at Ohio State, granting him the winning and competition key. Fields also receives the experience key, as he has started two seasons at OSU. The only other key Fields definitively receives is the first round talent key, as he is projected to be taken in the first round. With a PA / int ratio of 37.5, Fields falls short of the threshold needed to receive that key. While Fields does have baseball experience, he was not drafted or offered a contract by an MLB team, so he does not receive that key. For now, Fields has four keys, one short of a passing grade. Fields can gain a 5th key, however, by sitting for one year in the NFL. Going off of mock drafts and insider news, it’s plausible that the 49ers will draft Fields with the 3rd pick and sit him behind Jimmy Garropolo for one year. This scenario would result in Field’s receiving a passing grade from the model.
3. Zach Wilson: Passing Grade (if he sits for a year in the NFL)
Zach Wilson’s situation is much similar to that of Fields. Wilson currently has four keys: winning, experience, first round talent, and PA / int ratio (his PA / int ratio was 112). Wilson did not play in a major conference, so he does not receive the competition key. He also does not have a baseball background, preventing him from receiving the MLB key. The only way Wilson can attain the five keys needed for a passing grade is by sitting for a year in the NFL. Assuming that he goes to the Jets with the 2nd pick, it’s more likely than not that the Jets will start him right away, which would result in a failing grade for Wilson. Because Fields is much more likely to sit for a year and reach five keys, he is rated higher than Zach Wilson.
4. Mac Jones: Failing Grade
Mac Jones currently has four keys: winning, competition, first round talent, and PA / int ratio (his ratio was 100.5). Although he can reach five keys by sitting out his first year in the NFL, this would not yield a passing grade, as Jones does not have the experience key. In order to receive a passing grade, a prospect must start for at least 2 college seasons, as no first round quarterback drafted since 1999 has had a successful career (as defined earlier) without doing so. For these reasons, Mac Jones receives a failing grade from the model.
Trey Lance also receives a failing grade for similar reasons. Even if Lance sits for a year, the maximum amount of keys he can receive is four, as he did not play in a major conference, only started for one season in college, and does not have a baseball background. Furthermore, without the experience key, Lance cannot receive a passing grade, as explained with Mac Jones. All in all, Lance does not have enough keys, yielding a failing grade.
2021 Conclusion
Looking overall at the grades for the 2021 class, the QB Key Model’s assessments seem reasonable. Out of the five quarterbacks, the model predicts that at least one (Lawrence) but no more than three will have passing careers. For reference, the 2018 NFL draft saw five QBs go in the first round (Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, and Jackson). Three of these QBs (Mayfield, Allen, and Jackson) have succeeded with their respective teams, while Darnold and Rosen are considered by many to be busts. If five QBs are selected in the first round, it’s unlikely that more than three will be successful picks. The model projects that Lawrence will be a worthwhile pick, Lance and Jones will be busts, and Fields and Wilson will go either way based on if they sit out their first year in the NFL.
This article was submitted by Ellis Zusel. For more sports, news and entertainment, follow us on Twitter @MWSNsports or like our page on Facebook.
